Recent funk means Yanks' postseason run is over
by Bill Chuck, Dugout Central
Those who revel in Yankee schadenfreude can plan two parties this year, one when they are eliminated from the divisional race and the second when they are eliminated from the wild-card race.
The reality is this: The Yanks are not going to the postseason this year, and their fans better start planning for and accepting that right now. Start by doing the math. At 65-58 the Yankees entered Sunday 10 games behind the Rays in the loss column and six behind the Red Sox, and they were also five games behind the Twins in the loss column.
Don't get it yet? Let's, for argument sake, say it will take the Yankees' record last year — the one in which they were a wild-card team, to make it as the wild-card team this season. Last season, they were 94-68. To reach this year they need to go 29-10 the remainder of the season. Does anybody see any indication that this team is capable of playing .743 ball from this point on?
OK, for those of you who think it's possible (hey, anything can happen, just ask the Rockies), let's throw this into the mix: Of their remaining 39 games, the Yanks play 22 on the road, where their record is 28-31.
Let's peel another layer of the onion away. After a miserable 3-7 road trip ("It was a bad trip, you can't sugarcoat it," Derek Jeter said.), the Yanks are at home for a three-game series with the Royals and then head back on the road for three in Toronto and another three in Baltimore. Neither team is a pushover.
The Jays are only two games behind New York in the loss column. They have won seven of their last 10 and would love to catch the Yankees. And, while the Orioles are 59-62 on the season (please note that makes them closer to the Yanks in the loss column than the Yanks are to the Red Sox), the O's are tough in Baltimore, playing 31-24 at home, and still harbor hope of having their first winning season since 1997.
Continuing the Yankee schedule, they then come home to face the Red Sox for three games. (Hey, Boston! Don't get lick your chops. The Yanks may be dead, but the Minnesota Twins certainly aren't. Your Red Sox, now minus Mike Lowell, are no sure thing.) Then the Yanks face the Jays again for another three-game set before they head out on the road for an exhausting excursion that will take them to Detroit for a make-up game then on to Tampa Bay (they are only 45-17 at home, tied with the Cubs for the best record in baseball), then all the way back out to the West Coast for a three-game set with the M's (that's "M" for "Miserables) and then three with the Angels, who eat the Yankees for lunch.
After a travel day they face the Rays for the final home stand in Yankee Stadium history (yes, that's how close we are to the end of the season) and after Tampa comes another team truly battling for the post-season, the Chicago White Sox, before they shut the great cathedral with three games against the Orioles.
While the MLB schedulers should be embarrassed that they close Yankee Stadium on Sunday night, Sept. 21, it only means more misery for the Yanks. They will have to play out their season with three in Toronto and then may be forced to watch the Red Sox celebrate a playoff berth at Fenway, at the Yanks expense, for the final three games of the season.
This could be a very ugly final six weeks for the New Yorkers.
Not that the season to this point has been pretty. For example:
The Yankees went 17-for-80 with runners in scoring position on this most recent road trip.
The Captain, Derek Jeter is hitting .289 — a great average for a good-field/no-hit shortstop — but Jeter is far from a good fielder, and he's on his way to the lowest batting average of his career. The Yanks have clearly missed the bat of the injured Jorge Posada. While Jorge Molina and Ivan Rodriguez are strong defensively, the Yanks have generated only five homers from the catching slot this season and a .242 batting average. The loss of Hideki Matsui has been felt, and the injury and the decreased production of Alex Rodriguez means that A-Rod, with 75 RBI, may not accumulate 100 RBI for only the second time in his career. He had 156 last season.
Then there's the pitching. It's hard to believe, but the only starter able to make it through the season injury-free to this point is their oldest starter — Mike Mussina. (Moose, I hope I didn't put the whammy on you). While Mussina is having a great season, 15-7 and a 3.30 ERA, the rest of the pitching staff has been only mediocre.
The loss of Chien-Ming Wang to a fluke injury has been huge, but equally painful are the losses accrued by Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Darrell Rasner, who are a combined 5-17. Andy Pettitte has an ERA of 8.23 in his nine losses, an indication that like so many Yankee starters, he simply doesn't keep his team in a game. Manager Joe Girardi has been forced to rely on an inconsistent bullpen way too frequently. The loss of Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen hurt; the loss of Joba Chamberlain in the rotation has killed.
You certainly can't fault Girardi for the injuries that he has been forced to endure, although in this new age of baseballs sans "artificial sweeteners" when other teams are playing small ball, the Yanks have 80 stolen bases compared to the 123 they totaled in 2007. But, as my dad used to say, "you can't steal first base." And when Melky Cabrera is hitting .242 and Robinson Cano is hitting .262 you are not in a position as frequently as you would to run or play hit and run.
It's apparent that the front office may have reached the same conclusion that I have. I was shocked to see the Yanks let Paul Byrd slip to the Red Sox on waivers; maybe they just want their younger pitchers to have a chance.
Then came these words from Hank Steinbrenner: "I'm not writing off this season. They're trying hard to win. There's only so much you can do. They're not supermen. I think it's very simple, we've been devastated by injuries. No team I've ever seen in baseball has been decimated like this. It would kill any team ... It's not making excuses. It's reality. That's part of the game. That's clearly our problem. We're going to win it next year. If we need to add a top veteran pitcher, we'll do that. We'll do whatever we need to do. Next year we'll be extremely dangerous."
In other words, "Wait 'til next year."
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